eVTOLs are coming!

Spring has sprung and that means it’s a great day for electric powered flight. 

Let’s get into it.

What you need to know in eVTOLs this week

Vertical Aerospace

The UK’s front runner, Vertical Aerospace, announced their second full scale eVTOL prototype is expected in the ‘coming weeks.’

Dubbed the VX4, this new model should be faster, quieter and have improved proprietary battery technology.

It will be used for piloted test flights as soon as this spring. It’s a tight schedule as the company has plans for a public display at the Farnborough Air Show in July.

Hopefully things go better than last year when a bonding issue in a propeller caused an accident that put the original prototype out of commission.

XPeng AeroHT

Forget throwing your bike in the back of the truck when you go camping.

AeroHT, the electric aviation division of Chinese auto manufacturer XPeng, is one step closer to rolling out of their modular eVTOL. The Civil Aviation Administration of Central and Southern China (CaaC) accepted their Type Certification application.

Next Steps: Airworthiness Certification and planned customer delivery dates in late 2025.

Pre-Orders open up in late 2024 and cost a cool $150,000.

Here’s how it works:

• The ground module carries the air module.

• Modules automatically separate and combine.

• The ground module can recharge the air module.

My personal favorite stat: The ground unit.6×6 All Wheel Drive.

You just don’t see that number of wheels on a vehicles often. Sign me up.

Alaka’i Technologies

Battery Technology can get in the weeds pretty quickly around eVTOLs. All you need to know for now is that most eVTOL manufactures opt for electric power. (usually from lithium batteries).

Massachusetts based Alaka’i Technologies is betting on Hydrogen power. The thesis is hydrogen powered aircraft will have better range (up to 400 miles) and operating endurance (up to 4 hours).

Chief Operating Officer, Bill Spellane is a man after my heart.

“We’re not trying to be a speed demon type-vehicle. We’re trying to take off and land from as many locations as possible while providing comfort to the passengers, opposed to sitting in traffic.”

To Vertically Integrate or Not to Vertically Integrate?

That Is The Question

There are two options when it comes to eVTOL manufacturing:

1) Own and control you own supply chain, known as Vertical Integration. (e.g. Tesla)

2) Work with supplier who manufacture parts, components etc. and assemble the final product. (e.g. Just about every other auto manufactures).

So, which is better? Well, it depends on who you ask…

Developing everything in-house allows you to build each piece specifically for eVTOLs meaning a higher quality end product right out of the gate.

But the downside risk is real. It’s much more capital intensive to get going, especially for startups that don’t have a massive war chest.

On the flip side, relying on suppliers means you may have cheaper upfront cost and a quicker path to FAA approval but you’re not in complete control of your own destiny. You’re at the mercy of others.

So Who’s doing what?

Most lean towards using partners. Vertical Aerospace, is working with eight global industrial partners to bring their eVTOL to market.

Archer Aviation’s CEO, Adam Goldstein, has been a vocal proponent of working with suppliers.

“Our strategy is to create the most streamlined path to market, starting with sourcing 80% of our vehicle’s major components and subsystems through suppliers with a proven track record of FAA certification.”

Joby Aviation is one of the few on the other end of the spectrum. They largely develop components and systems in-house.

“When you’re building hardware, there is no substitute to being vertically integrated with the rate of progress that you’re able to deliver and the quality of the products that you’re able to create,” said Joby CEO, JoeBen Bevirt.

Being vertically integrated has “enabled us to build a dramatically better-performing aircraft that is quieter, faster and, most importantly, safer. When your engineers are steeped in the design, manufacturing and testing of the components, you get better, safer and more reliable designs.”

Let that marinate as you place your bets on who’s going to dominate this space…

The Markets

Or “The Casino” if you prefer the Wall Street Bets mentality…

Bit of a mixed bag Week over Week…

Lilium, Archer and eHang are about even while Vertical Aerospace is up ~10%.

Joby is down ~5%. But no need to panic.

Actually, don’t even glance at the panic button. We’re in this for the long haul. And Shangri-La awaits those willing to hold on…

In Other Market News

Cathy Woods is on her hype again.

Ark, the investment shop she runs, juiced up their position in Archer Aviation by 4.7% in Q4 2024. Her fund now owns almost 25M shares worth $152M making them one of largest shareholders at 8.28%

Depending on your opinion of Cathy Woods, this is either the confirmation bias you love, or a sign to run away from this stock as fast as you can.

The Life Savings Bet

Quick reminder - I’ve Yolo’d my life savings of $100,000 on JOBY.

Does that mean this newsletter is biased?

Is any news unbiased?

Maybe the Associated Press?

It means I have skin in the game. And I am completely transparent.

So are we in the money?!

No… Down a bit. I wont be quitting my day job.

Lighten Up

Final Question

What airline should eVTOL companies try to replicate for customer experience? — best reply gets a shoutout next week.

Best Answer From Last Week

I asked “When the first eVTOL is up and running in your city, are you jumping in and taking a flight immediately? Or waiting a while to see how it goes for the other human Guinea Pigs?

Best reply came from Drew from Nebraska: “Did we create half man-half guinea pigs that I’m not aware of? Let those things use the eVTOLs first.”

Thanks for reading and let us know what you want to see more of next week. We read every single reply.

Stay above.

— The Above Traffic Team